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As an important industrial metal, copper is not only widely used in many fields such as construction, electricity, and manufacturing, but also plays a key role in the global economy. With the gradual recovery of the global economy, the demand for copper is also growing. Let's talk about the focus of the market on the supply and demand of copper mines in 2023.
It is understood that in the second half of 2023, the global supply and demand of copper mines will gradually tighten. On the one hand, the overall increase in copper mine production this year is slightly lower than expected, and on the other hand, the expansion rate of crude refining capacity has accelerated.
On the mining side, according to data from the International Copper Study Group (ICSG), global copper production is expected to reach 24 million tons in 2023, an increase of about 3% from 2022. The main growth comes from increased mine production in countries such as Chile and the United States, but some production capacity will not be realized until 2024-2025. Judging from the current situation, due to the decline in ore grade and increased mining difficulty in some major producing countries, it is expected that the growth rate of new investment and expansion of global copper mine capacity will slow down by 2025. In addition, the decline in production capacity growth in South America, a traditional copper-producing area, and frequent interference events are also a major factor limiting future copper mine production.
However, unlike copper mines with limited expansion, domestic crude and refined production capacity will maintain a high growth rate in the next three years, which has further aggravated the tightening of copper mine supply and demand. Therefore, the global refined copper supply side will be under great pressure in 2024, and the copper supply and demand may present a relatively loose pattern. However, although the expansion of smelting capacity can meet market demand, it also brings environmental pressure. With the strengthening of environmental protection regulations, companies need to invest more funds and energy to reduce environmental pollution, which may increase the operating costs of companies and put pressure on profits.
In addition, the development of the recycled copper market will also have an impact on copper supply. At present, the global recycled copper production is about 13 million tons, accounting for nearly half of the global copper production. With the improvement of environmental awareness and technological progress, the recycling efficiency of recycled copper will be further improved, and the development potential of the recycled copper market is huge.
As for demand, with the recovery of the global economy, the demand for copper is expected to grow further, especially in the fields of electric vehicles and renewable energy. The demand for copper will increase significantly. According to the forecast of the International Energy Agency (IEA), by 2030, the demand for copper in electric vehicles will increase three times compared with 2020.
In summary, the tightening of copper supply and demand may lead to an increase in copper prices, and the expansion of smelting capacity may lead to an oversupply in the market, which will put pressure on copper prices. This contradiction between supply and demand may lead to intensified price fluctuations and bring risks to market participants.
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